Future Governor
For years before September 10, 2025, and especially after the 2024 election, people on X/Twitter, local Arizona television, and national political media floated Charlie Kirk as a possible future governor of Arizona. Some treated it as idle speculation. Some treated it as a serious 2026 path. Pollsters included his name in hypothetical Republican primary fields. Kirk himself never publicly announced a candidacy and, in May 2025, endorsed U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs instead — a choice that became TPUSA / Turning Point Action's "Project 2026" lane for the Arizona governor's mansion.
:::note Scope of this page This page documents claims, rumors, polls, and public statements about Kirk as a potential Arizona governor. It does not assert that he would have won, that he had decided to run, or that any living person acted on a "future governor" theory in connection with his death. Where quotes or poll numbers appear, they are attributed to the outlet or account that published them. :::
Why Arizona entered the conversation
Kirk lived and worked substantially out of Arizona. Turning Point USA and Turning Point Action were headquartered in the Phoenix area; Kirk and his family were repeatedly described in Arizona coverage as Arizona residents. Arizona is a swing state where Republicans hoped to unseat Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs after Hobbs narrowly defeated Kari Lake in 2022, and where Trump's 2024 margin was among his strongest in competitive states. Kirk's organization spent years on Arizona elections, ballot chasing, and candidate amplification — so "Charlie Kirk as governor" was not a random fantasy; it was an extension of an existing power base that media and pollsters found plausible enough to test.
Two separate claim-lines later get mixed together on social media:
- Kirk himself would run for / become governor.
- Kirk would make someone else (especially Andy Biggs) governor through TPAction.
This page keeps those distinct.
November 25, 2024 — KPNX / local NBC "rumors he wants to run"
The highest-visibility media seed for the "Kirk for governor" boom on X was a KPNX 12News (Phoenix NBC) political segment after the 2024 election. Accounts across the right-wing news ecosystem clipped and restated the same lines within minutes.
What the segment reportedly said
As restated on X by amplifiers quoting the broadcast:
- Kirk and Turning Point USA "played a big role in Republican victories this year."
- Kirk had "emerged a significant player in Republican politics."
- "There are rumors he wants to run for governor."
- His potential as a candidate should not be underestimated because he can "raise money" and "a lot of people know who he is."
That is local-TV rumor reporting, not a Kirk announcement. It is still the most-cited "credible" source in the November 2024 viral wave.
High-reach X amplification (same night)
| Account | Role / credibility notes | Claim as posted |
|---|---|---|
| @LeadingReport | High-reach breaking-news aggregator | "BREAKING: Charlie Kirk pitched to run for Governor of Arizona by local NBC station." (~417k views reported on the post) |
| @nicksortor (Nick Sortor) | On-scene conservative reporter; frequent cable news guest | "JUST IN: Charlie Kirk could be running for Governor of Arizona… EPIC! I'd be the first one to move there. LET'S GO @charliekirk11!" |
| @EricLDaugh (Eric Daugherty) | Right-wing news editor / alerts account | "#BREAKING: Charlie Kirk may seek to run for governor of Arizona - local NBC station" + broadcast quote |
| @MarioNawfal | Large X live-news personality | "CHARLIE KIRK FOR ARIZONA GOVERNOR?" restating money + name-ID argument from NBC |
| @alx | Large political X account | "KPNX-12News: There are rumors that Charlie Kirk could run for Governor of Arizona" |
| @MAGAVoice | Large MAGA amplifier | "There are rumors that Charlie Kirk will run for Arizona's next Governor… I STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS / DO YOU?" |
None of those posts, by themselves, prove intent. They prove that a local NBC rumor frame went national on X and that high-follower conservative media accounts treated a Kirk candidacy as desirable and plausible.
February–May 2025 — Polls that treated Kirk as a real hypothetical
February 2025 — Noble Predictive Insights (NPI), covered by KTAR
Phoenix-area KTAR News reported NPI polling of registered Republicans (Feb. 11–13, 2025; n = 374) that included Kirk in a hypothetical six-person GOP primary field:
- Declared / known names: Andy Biggs, Karrin Taylor Robson
- Speculative names: Charlie Kirk, Treasurer Kimberly Yee, state Sen. Jake Hoffman, Jack McCain
Reported primary shares:
| Name | Share |
|---|---|
| Charlie Kirk | 14% (tie for first) |
| Andy Biggs | 14% (tie for first) |
| Karrin Taylor Robson | 11% |
| Jack McCain | 8% |
| Kimberly Yee | 5% |
| Jake Hoffman | 1% |
KTAR's framing was explicit: "If he runs for governor, Charlie Kirk would have as good a chance at winning the Republican nomination as any of the current candidates." That is a pollster-and-local-news claim about electability if he ran, not a prediction that he would run.
May 2025 — Newsweek / second NPI wave
Newsweek (Andrew Stanton, late May 2025) reported a later NPI survey (May 12–16, 2025; 1,026 registered voters, MoE ±4.76 pp). In that snapshot:
- Karrin Taylor Robson 24%
- Andy Biggs 17%
- Charlie Kirk 17%
- Kimberly Yee 6%
- Unsure 37%
Key Newsweek statements (high-value, attributed):
- Kirk "had been floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate for Republicans."
- He "endorsed Biggs earlier in May rather than running for the office himself."
- "Although it was rumored that Kirk could run, and he was included in early polls of the race, Kirk never made public comments indicating he planned to do so."
- Kirk and Yee had "both passed on running" after the poll window.
David Byler, NPI Chief of Research, on the endorsement's effect:
"The moment Kirk stepped out and backed Biggs, the math changed. Biggs now has the opportunity to inherit a young, digital-savvy base that Kirk built, which could be decisive."
Byler also described an "army" of potential support from Kirk's Turning Point network. The report noted overlapping ideological profile and favorability between Biggs and Kirk — which is why pollsters and Twitter users sometimes treated "Kirk voters" and "Biggs voters" as transferable.
Mike Noble (NPI founder/CEO) framed the general-election environment as competitive against Hobbs ("foundation, but not a fortress") with a still-strong Trump factor — context for why any high-profile MAGA-aligned figure (Kirk or Biggs) was taken seriously.
What Kirk actually did publicly: endorse Andy Biggs
The documented public record of Kirk's own posts and appearances in May–July 2025 is not "I am running." It is "Andy Biggs is Arizona's next governor" and Turning Point Action will deliver the mansion.
Documented Kirk statements and events (as posted on X)
- May 29–31, 2025 — Kirk promoted and headlined Turning Point Action's Biggs for Governor rally in Phoenix. Guest speakers promoted in his posts included Matt Gaetz, Eli Crane, Paul Gosar, Mark Lamb, Byron Donalds, Burgess Owens, Lauren Boebert, and others. Kirk posted that the event was "the first day of the future of Arizona."
- May 31, 2025 — Kirk amplified Gaetz: "You delivered the White House to Donald Trump, and you're going to deliver the Governor's Mansion to Andy Biggs."
- June 1, 2025 — Kirk posted video of his rally speech: to secure Trump's 2028 legacy, lock down Arizona by defeating Katie Hobbs; "nobody is better-equipped to do that than Rep. Andy Biggs."
- June 7, 2025 — Kirk post: "Andy Biggs, your next governor of Arizona."
- July 13, 2025 — Kirk post: "Arizona's next governor Andy Biggs" introducing Biggs on Gen Z / Reagan "freedom must be taught" themes.
A Kirk quote recirculated heavily after his death (in Biggs-primary content) runs roughly:
"On election night in 2026, which feels like a LONG time away, but boy, it's going to be here just like this, we are going to be celebrating that my friend Andy Biggs is the next governor."
That quote is Kirk predicting Biggs, not Kirk predicting himself. Social media often blurs the two after September 10.
"Project 2026"
Turning Point Action later described Kirk's Arizona governor project as Project 2026 aimed at electing Biggs. After Kirk's death, @TPAction posted (Jan. 2026):
"Charlie Kirk's Project 2026 was getting @andybiggs4az elected as Governor of Arizona. We're going to see it though."
When Biggs later won a Republican primary (July 2026 period coverage on X), amplifiers framed the win as fulfilling Kirk's plan — "Charlie is smiling up in Heaven" posts, Steve Bannon War Room–branded accounts noting Kirk's backing, etc. Those are legacy-fulfillment claims, still distinct from "Kirk would have been governor."
Inventory of claim types (who said what kind of thing)
A. "Rumors he will run" (media / amplifiers)
- KPNX 12News (Nov 2024): rumors he wants to run; money + name ID.
- Nick Sortor, Eric Daugherty, Mario Nawfal, Leading Report, ALX, MAGA Voice, and many smaller accounts: positive amplification; "EPIC," "HUGE," "strongly support."
B. "If he runs, he is competitive" (pollsters / local news)
- KTAR + NPI (Feb 2025): tied for first with Biggs at 14% among Republicans in a speculative field; "as good a chance… as any of the current candidates."
- NPI (May 2025) via Newsweek: Kirk still at 17% alongside Biggs even as Robson led; then he declined to run.
C. "Floated as a potential candidate" (national press)
- Newsweek: explicit language that Kirk had been floated as a potential Republican gubernatorial candidate; included in early polls; no public comments from Kirk that he planned to run.
D. "He should run / I want him to run" (fan and influencer wishcasting)
- Dominant tone of Nov 2024 viral posts: support and excitement, not inside reporting from the Kirk household or TPUSA legal filings.
- Recurring theme: only a high-name, high-fundraiser MAGA figure can retake the Arizona governor's mansion after 2022.
E. "He would have been / if he were still alive" (post–Sept 10 speculation)
- Example: Jul 28, 2026 X post asking whether Kirk would have run for the GOP nomination if still alive.
- These are counterfactuals. They are part of public discourse but are not evidence of a firm pre-death decision.
F. Conflation errors common on X
- Treating Biggs primary wins as proof Kirk "was going to be governor."
- Treating poll inclusion as a campaign launch.
- Treating "rumors" on local TV as equivalent to an FEC/state filing.
- Treating TPAction "Project 2026" as Kirk's personal ballot line.
G. Claims not found as solid primary hits in this research pass
- A clear Donald Trump public endorsement of "Charlie Kirk for Arizona governor" (Trump did dual-endorse Biggs and Robson when Biggs entered, per Newsweek).
- A Kirk tweet or speech saying "I am running for governor of Arizona in 2026."
- A formal campaign committee under Kirk's name for AZ governor.
Absence of those items matters: the "future governor" story is real as rumor + poll + desire, weaker as declared candidacy.
Timeline (compressed)
| Date | Event / claim |
|---|---|
| 2022 | Kirk heavily involved in AZ races (e.g. Kari Lake); not a personal governor bid |
| Nov 25, 2024 | KPNX/NBC Phoenix airs "rumors he wants to run"; X explodes with Sortor, Daugherty, Leading Report, etc. |
| Feb 11–13, 2025 | NPI poll includes Kirk; 14% tie with Biggs (KTAR) |
| May 2025 | Kirk endorses Biggs; TPAction rally infrastructure; Newsweek: floated but never announced |
| May 12–16, 2025 | NPI poll still shows Kirk 17% in primary field before/around pass decision |
| May 31 – Jul 2025 | Kirk repeatedly posts Biggs as "next governor"; builds Project 2026 |
| Sep 10, 2025 | Kirk assassinated at UVU — personal AZ governor path ends |
| 2026 | TPAction continues Biggs project; primary discourse frames wins as Kirk's unfinished plan; counterfactual "would he have run?" posts |
Why this page sits under Charlie (investigation angle)
Charlie Kirk is documented here as victim and motive-pressure subject, not as a living candidate. The "future governor of Arizona" thread matters for three non-assassinating reasons:
- Power trajectory — Poll inclusion and NBC rumor coverage show how far institutional MAGA and Arizona Republican politics treated him as more than a campus speaker.
- Choice of path — He publicly chose kingmaker (Biggs / Project 2026) over a personal 2026 filing, which is the last clear signal on the record.
- Discourse after death — Counterfactuals ("he would have been governor") and fulfillment narratives ("Biggs is carrying his plan") are part of how the public reconstructs who he was becoming in 2024–2025. Those reconstructions are political interpretation, not forensic findings.
Nothing on this page should be read as implying that ambition for the Arizona governorship caused his death, or that any named living person acted on that ambition against him.
Status
Charlie Kirk — Deceased (2025).
Living persons named in reporting above (Andy Biggs, Katie Hobbs, Kari Lake, Karrin Taylor Robson, Kimberly Yee, Nick Sortor, Eric Daugherty, Mario Nawfal, David Byler, Mike Noble, Matt Gaetz, and others) — Alive unless otherwise noted. Characterizations are attributed to their sources.
Interesting In This Area
- Polls put him level with Biggs while he was privately warning friends about danger.
- The presidential path talk used the same name-recognition and fundraising argument, scaled upward.
- His church network reached roughly 4,200 congregations, a base the polls never counted.
- The 2019 Groyper campaign is where the Israel fault line inside his coalition started.
Interesting In Other Areas
- TPUSA was the organisation behind Project 2026 and the Arizona ground operation.
- Charlie Kirk's own profile covers what he built and what he changed.
- Before Events maps everything already in motion before September 10, 2025.
- Broadcast networks carried the manhunt grammar and later the courtroom rulings.
Other Pages In This Section
Constitutionally eligible in 2028, with a national youth machine already built. It collects the path arguments and the post-death "they killed a future President" claims without endorsing either.
Read thisNetanyahu / Iran Intervention Call
The most-shared call claim on X: a final high-pressure intervention over Iran, reportedly refused. Heads of government call American political figures routinely, and the page says so before anything else.
Read thisA reported donor warning to back off before Christmas, a Hamptons intervention, and a phone behaving strangely. Self-reported symptoms, gathered so the surveillance thread can be tested rather than assumed.
Read thisThe head of security is named as recipient of the night-before warning, and no screenshot has ever been produced. Flood has not been charged with anything; this documents claims about messages.
Read thisElsewhere In The Investigation
The organization Charlie built, the donors who funded it, and the internal friction in the weeks before September 10. Read it alongside the motive threads; much of the reported pressure ran through here.
Read thisThe man himself — what he built, what he changed his mind about in his final months, and who he told that he was afraid. Every other page on this site is downstream of this one.
Read this
The whole pre-September 10 map in one place: GRAMA warnings, the July 31 session, the Hamptons weekend, search spikes and aircraft. It is explicit that none of it proves any attendee ordered violence — it shows what was already in motion.
Read this
What CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS and PBS carried from the September 2025 breaking coverage through the 2026 courtroom rulings — and, just as usefully, what they never carried at all.
Read thisSources
- KPNX 12News / local NBC Phoenix political segment (Nov 25, 2024) as restated in contemporaneous X posts
- X posts Nov 25, 2024: @LeadingReport, @nicksortor, @EricLDaugh, @MarioNawfal, @alx, @MAGAVoice
- KTAR News — Feb 2025 NPI poll write-up ("Charlie Kirk for Arizona governor?")
- Noble Predictive Insights polling (Feb and May 2025 waves)
- Newsweek — Andrew Stanton, "How Charlie Kirk Reshaped Arizona's Gubernatorial Race: Pollster" (May 2025)
- Charlie Kirk X posts May–July 2025 endorsing / platforming Andy Biggs; TPAction Project 2026 posts
- Site cross-link: Charlie Kirk Show / influencers notes (May 31, 2025 Biggs rally mention)
- Research dumps:
tmp/future_governor_research/query1–query3
This website's author is @HolonCitizen on X and YouTube/@HolonCitizen. Follow me there.
Interesting
- The site itself flags which viral kill-me screenshots are fabricated.
- An ATF DNA chief reportedly conceded third-party DNA transfer is possible.
- Prosecutors reportedly signalled they might withhold full device extractions.