Affidavit of Probable Cause
Filed September 16, 2025. Signed by Officer Brian Davis (UTBDAVIS), Utah Attorney General. Probable Cause ID: 189904. Establishes formal arrest of Tyler Robinson at 4:00 AM September 12, 2025; describes the investigator encounter in Washington County on September 12 early morning hours. The affidavit is the state's earliest written theory of how Charlie Kirk was killed, and it should be read against the independent cause-of-death work.
Case: State of Utah v. Tyler Alexander Robinson, Case No. 251403576 — case overview, heard at the Fourth District Court in Provo before Judge Tony F. Graf Jr.
Download PDF: Affidavit of Probable Cause
Public mirror also hosted by Fox News static as a redacted PDF of the same instrument.
What the instrument asserts (charging beliefs, not verdicts)
Officer Davis swears under criminal penalty that he believes probable cause exists that Robinson committed:
- Aggravated murder — by shooting Charlie Kirk in circumstances putting many persons at grave risk
- Felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily injury
- Obstruction of justice — for moving and hiding the rifle
Robinson is charged, not convicted. A PC affidavit records what one officer swears he believes; it is a threshold instrument, not trial proof, and it has never been tested by a verdict. Every assertion summarised below is an allegation by the State.
Competing arrest and booking clocks inside the PC package
| Clock | Source description | Problem noted by analysts |
|---|---|---|
| ~10:00 PM Sept 11 | Inmate booking sheet; Davis listed as arresting officer | Cannot fit 3+ hour drive from Utah County after the 8:02 PM call to Sheriff Nate Brooksby without earlier southbound departure — arrest-time discrepancy |
| 1:58 AM Sept 12 | “Date In” Booking #460956 | Friel and others treat this as a hard jail-system anchor — Utah County Jail and custody |
| 4:00 AM Sept 12 | Formal arrest in PC / Utah County materials | After northbound transport to the Utah County Jail in Spanish Fork |
| 7:18 AM Sept 12 | PC formally entered (ID 189904) | Hours after physical custody began under any of the above |
Independent reconstruction (Chris Friel, The Booking, Arrest, and Surrender of Tyler Robinson, Academia.edu) argues these clocks cannot all be geographically true without investigators leaving south before the publicized evening surrender window. Friel also claims jail and court copies of the PC affidavit diverge on clothing and first-sighting details versus later search-warrant narrative — a concrete dual-copy research task.
Offense dates on the formal counts are listed as 09/12/2025 on related charging paperwork even though the shooting date is 09/10 — an administrative oddity noted on the Sept 8–13 Tyler clock.
Related multi-clock map: arrest, booking and affidavit timeline.
Two encounters, not one — the affidavit versus the Miranda exhibit
The most common misreading of this document is treating its Washington County paragraph as the same event as the 6:25 PM Miranda video. Read side by side, they describe different encounters:
| Miranda exhibit (Bates 003996-R2) | Probable Cause Affidavit | |
|---|---|---|
| Stated time | 6:25–6:26 PM, video mark 03:36:53 | "September 12, early morning hours" |
| Who is present | A single officer; Robinson with his parents, uncuffed | Utah County investigators after a ~3.5-hour trip |
| What happens | Rights read; counsel (Doug Terry) and silence invoked; no questioning | In-person observation of clothing for comparison to surveillance images |
| Date printed on the face of the record | Not printed — Sept 11 is inferred | Sept 12 |
If both are accurate, the affidavit's paragraph is a later investigative encounter and not a contradiction of the earlier reading — the position argued on Mirandizing. If the Miranda video is in fact Sept 12, the two collapse into one and the defense filing's surrender date is wrong. No court has resolved this.
Davis as author vs presence (hearing commentary)
- @BasedSamParker and others note Davis is named as arresting officer at 10:00 PM on booking/PC materials yet testified to arriving near midnight after an order to fly south around ~8:30 PM.
- Commentators (@VLuvMully) say Davis described the 9:00 PM turn-in as something he “was told” — i.e., hearsay foundation for that paragraph (hearsay is often legally allowed at the PC stage; the critique is chronological, not automatically a legal nullity).
- Hearing watchers report the defense team asked no cross-examination questions of Davis at the July 2026 preliminary hearing (@MsJaneDoeUKnow) — strategic silence, not proof either way.
- Primary audiovisual: East Idaho News uploads of Agent Brian Davis and David Hull prelim testimony (July 2026 YouTube). Witness list: who testified.
What modern prelim evidence maps onto the PC theory
Attorney Andrea Burkhart’s public inventory of the State’s July 2026 preliminary-hearing package is the functional content of the PC narrative even where individual affidavit paragraphs remain underextracted on-site. It is the State's case as she reports it — not a set of proven facts:
- 12:23 PM gunshots (shot-time dispute); Losee Center roof video path (UVU surveillance); screwdriver DNA; sniper pad; shoe/scuffs at the northeast drop (roof-jumping timeline)
- Medical-examiner ruling of GSW homicide (autopsy and forensic timeline); .30 cal class fragments only — ATF fragment, inconclusive match
- Gray Dodge Challenger nexus (vehicle movements); Ring / Campus Drive ~12:30 AM Sept 11 plate contact
- Mauser Model 98 .30-06 plus engraved casings (Notices, bulges… / Hey fascist! CATCH! / Bella ciao / If you read this…) — chain of custody
- DNA major-contributor language for Robinson on rifle surfaces, towel, casings, screwdriver (State-leaning summaries only; contested below)
- Home search: Dremel and bit, a “Test Shot” engraved casing, ammunition, perforated targets
- Lance Twiggs texts and a handwritten note (Twiggs' phone); Discord (in court); ~9 PM voluntary surrender; Mike Mitchell coordination; parents interviewed; Washington County Sheriff's Office interview-room video
Full movement clocks: Tyler: Sept 8–13 · Sept 8–13 full · Sept 10 day-of.
Competing DNA and retrieval reads
- State-leaning: “strong support for inclusion” / major contributor for Robinson on multiple items recovered Sept 10–12.
- Skeptical hearing watchers: mixtures, transfer, degradation on trigger/trigger-guard surfaces; roommate contribution argued high on some household-linked items (@Sandy706, @Karen801688630). Compare rifle fingerprints and mismatch and no GSR and missing physical tests.
- Midnight Challenger: Hull vehicle ID vs Noble homeowner “bald man + three passengers” report on cross (@TalkMullins) — attacks a retrieval-attempt pillar that may appear in PC/search narratives. Location context: wooded area — gun recovery.
Treat DNA and vehicle occupancy as contested expert/testimony interpretation, not site conclusions.
Discord / surrender dependency (custody clock war)
Citizen investigators (@SteveCameronPr1, @baroncoleman, @NihiloX) argue that if Miranda at 6:25 PM Sept 11 is correct (Mirandizing), any PC reliance on a later Discord “confession” and post-8 PM Brooksby surrender story is chronologically unstable — the argument is developed on 6:25 PM custody and the Discord confession and Discord and custody timeline. Hearing watchers for the State say ~9 PM arrival and pre-custody Discord remain the sworn account, and the 24-hour investigative hold counterpoint offers an innocent reading of the gap. Map both clocks; do not assert a proven frame-up.
July 2026 process status
- Preliminary hearing evidence presented (video, DNA, texts, roommate testimony with immunity discussion, redacted materials during Davis testimony per Yahoo/ABC4 summaries) — see Day 1 through Day 4.
- Pro-PC commentators (e.g. @JackPosobiec) called the package substantial for bind-over purposes; probable cause is not trial guilt.
- Judge Graf deferred final PC arguments toward later 2026 dates (public reports of Sept 1 argument windows); publicity and sealing orders are on gag orders and sealing.
- Discovery/Brady/ATF chain fights remain live — see court discovery.
Best understanding of when this happened
Best understanding: public Robinson timeline claims concentrate in SEPT 8–13, with heavy mass on day-of (SEPT 10) and surrender chain (SEPT 11). Chart is that week only.
Date range (working model): SEPT 8–13 · Day-of + surrender neighborhood
The chart below is not a government finding. Bar height is relative likelihood from public claims. Domain is trimmed to non-trivial likelihood.
See Also
- Mirandizing of Tyler Robinson
- Tyler Robinson Timeline
- Case & Trial
- Arrest, booking and affidavit timeline
- Probable Cause Affidavit (police booking copy)
- Mirandizing — Court Evidence (document hub)
- Case overview — State v. Robinson
Laws (Charlie Kirk)
- The sealed evidence behind the affidavit and Robinson's Discord and text messages cited and FBI Form 302 reports from the arrest are things that the Charlie Kirk Investigation Laws may result in powerful truths coming out that aren't out yet.
Citizen Investigator Claims on X
The probable-cause affidavit is both a primary charging document and a target of citizen critique.
- Critics say it freezes a rooftop narrative that ignores dispatch all-black descriptions (scanner timeline) and acoustic alternatives.
- Defenders say PC affidavits are threshold instruments, not trial proof — a fair point this site records alongside the critiques.
- Dual jail/court copies (Friel) and Davis 10 PM vs midnight travel are the document-integrity flashpoints; the full multi-clock map is on arrest, booking and affidavit timeline.
- Discovery fights (Brady, ATF chain) are the live 2026 process layer — see court discovery.
Open Questions Raised by Investigators
- Which affidavit paragraphs have been publicly released vs sealed, and do jail vs court copies diverge? See sealed court proceedings.
- What defense motions attack specific factual assertions (DNA, Discord timing, clothing/sighting times)? See preliminary hearing and motions.
- Why is Davis listed as 10:00 PM arresting officer if he testified to near-midnight arrival?
- How much of the PC narrative rests on hearsay about the 9:00 PM turn-in versus first-hand observation?
- Offense dates 09/12 vs shooting 09/10 — clerical practice or substantive labeling?
Interesting In This Area
- Miranda is placed at 6:25 PM on September 11, an hour this instrument does not carry.
- Four documents describe the same arrest and disagree on when it happened.
- The 7:57 PM Discord stamp sits inside the same evening the affidavit describes.
- Discovery orders since October 2025 govern what of this package the public sees.
Interesting In Other Areas
- The affidavit is the first place the government commits to its theory of the killing.
- Bates-stamped discovery puts the Miranda reading near 6:25 PM.
- The affidavit's named signer holds a procedural role and nothing beyond it.
- A defense motion quoting a Bates exhibit is where the 6:25 PM timestamp came from.
Other Pages In This Section
Four independent lines of reasoning place the Miranda warning at 6:25 PM on September 11 — not September 12. That single hour decides whether the 7:57 PM Discord stamp is even possible.
Read this
Autopsy, Forensic & Medical Examiner Timeline
The forensic chronology: a May 2025 autopsy-photo law, a July 2025 medical examiner change, the operating-room and pronouncement times, and a report almost nobody has read. Dates first, conclusions never.
Read thisCustody, Surrender & Mirandizing Timeline (September 11–12)
The September 11–12 custody chain minute by minute — the family call, the sheriff's 8:02 PM account, a 6:25 PM Miranda timestamp, and a booking sheet reading 10:00 PM. Set side by side, some of those entries cannot all be true.
Read this
FBI Involvement & Announcements Timeline
One actor followed from the August 2025 field-office change through the September announcements, the halted parallel inquiries, and the records fights that followed. Timestamps and public statements, not conclusions.
Read thisElsewhere In The Investigation
Probable Cause Affidavit (Police Booking)
The police-side booking document that established the legal basis for the detention — and the first place the government commits to its theory of how Charlie Kirk was killed. The full PDF is on the page.
Read this
Bates 003996-R2: Miranda at 6:25 vs. the Discord Clock
Bates-stamped discovery puts Robinson Mirandized at about 6:25 PM. The confession is timestamped roughly ninety minutes later, when his phone should already have been in county custody.
Read this
A named procedural role and nothing beyond it. The page records that role with attribution because the alternative — letting a name float unexplained through commentary — is worse.
Read this
The Miranda Timing Came From a Defense Filing (Claims)
The 6:25 PM Miranda timestamp everyone quotes came out of a defense motion quoting a Bates-stamped exhibit — evidence the defense is working, not failing. Critics still ask why it has not become a public suppression fight.
Read thisThis website's author is @HolonCitizen on X and YouTube/@HolonCitizen. Follow me there.
Interesting
- SAM flights out of Fort Huachuca and N888KG's vanishing Provo track crowd the same days.
- A former NCTC director says the foreign-ties review was ordered stopped once a suspect was held.
- UVU records show two men asking police about "a plan" at 10:35 p.m. on September 9.
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